Question 1

How does Forecash pick Circa and Splash survivor teams?

Accepted Answer

Forecash ranks each week's available teams by an expected-value score that combines win probability with public pick ownership: a team's EV rises with its chance of winning and falls as more of the field picks it, because shared picks reduce leverage. The optimizer never simply chases the highest win probability — it balances survival now against future scarcity, reserving premium teams for the weeks where they create the most separation from the field. Win probabilities come from team power ratings with neutral-site and home-field adjustments, and every reciprocal matchup is checked so two opponents' odds always sum to 100 percent.

Question 2

How does Forecash optimize multiple survivor entries as a portfolio?

Accepted Answer

When you hold multiple entries — up to 10 in Circa Survivor, or several in Splash's Survivor World Championship — Forecash treats them as one portfolio rather than scoring each pick in isolation. It allocates teams across entries to maximize cumulative survival, diversifying where that raises the portfolio's combined odds and concentrating where one team is clearly best. It also protects scarce future resources: premium teams are spread to their highest-leverage weeks, and holiday legs (Thanksgiving and Christmas in Circa) and double-pick weeks (in Splash) are treated as future scarce demands so you don't burn a team you will need later.

Question 3

How does Forecash handle Splash Survivor World Championship double-pick weeks?

Accepted Answer

The Splash Survivor World Championship requires two picks in eight specific weeks (Weeks 3, 6, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16), where both teams must win to survive and neither can repeat a team already used. Forecash auto-configures these eight weeks for Splash entries and optimizes all selections together. It is also denominator-aware: on double-pick weeks the field's pick percentages sum to roughly 200 percent rather than 100 percent, so the optimizer scales ownership correctly instead of misreading a team's true popularity — and it treats each double-pick week as a scarce-resource demand when deciding which teams to save versus deploy.

Question 4

What is expected value (EV) and leverage in a survivor pool?

Accepted Answer

In a survivor pool, expected value weighs not just how likely a team is to win but how many other entries are picking that same team. Two entries on the same winning team gain nothing on each other, so a pick's leverage rises when fewer of the field are on it. Forecash penalizes popular picks and rewards contrarian-but-still-strong teams, which is what separates surviving from surviving with an edge over a large field — the math that matters in contests like Circa Survivor and Splash's Survivor World Championship where one entry takes the pool.

Question 5

What is the difference between Circa Survivor and Splash's Survivor World Championship?

Accepted Answer

Circa Survivor is a $20 million guaranteed, no-rake NFL survivor contest ($1,000 entry, up to 10 entries per person) where the last remaining entry wins the entire pool across NFL Weeks 1-18 plus Thanksgiving and Christmas legs, one pick per week, each team usable once per entry. Splash's Survivor World Championship is a $21 million guaranteed contest ($1,000 entry) run by Splash with Polymarket, kicking off September 13, featuring eight double-pick weeks where you must pick two winning teams. Forecash supports both as distinct contest types and optimizes entries for each according to its specific rules.

Metric	What It Measures	Your Edge
Win Probability	Likelihood a team wins their game this week	Identifies the safest picks
Pick Popularity	% of the public survivor field on that team	Finds contrarian, low-owned value
EV Score	Win probability adjusted for field leverage	Optimal pick per week ranking
Team Usage Remaining	Teams you haven't used yet this season	Long-run pool survival planning

Survivor Optimizer

How do you calculate the best NFL Survivor Pool pick?

What is "pick popularity" in a survivor pool, and why does it matter?

What data does the Forecash Survivor Pool Optimizer use?

Is Forecash's Survivor Pool Optimizer free to use?